This opinion article by Business Council of Australia Chief Executive Bran Black was published in The Australian on 28 May 2026.
I returned to Australia this week after leading a delegation of Australian chief executives through New York and Washington, where we met with senior investors, members of congress, administration officials, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the New York Stock Exchange and leaders from some of the world’s largest investment and technology companies.
The message we heard repeatedly was clear, consistent and urgent – Australia is extraordinarily well positioned to benefit from the next wave of global investment driven by artificial intelligence. But the world will not wait for Australia.
On the flight home from Washington to Dallas before returning to Australia, I sat next to an American investment banker heading to Hong Kong. When he heard I was Australian, he immediately said he’d heard about Australia’s recent changes to capital gains tax and our miles of red tape and regulation.
Then he said something alarming. “I wouldn’t invest in Australia right now.” This wasn’t because he considered Australia lacks potential. Quite the opposite. In meeting after meeting, we heard enormous enthusiasm for Australia’s advantages: our strong and stable institutions, natural resources, available land, and strategic location in the Indo-Pacific.
One senior figure told us Australia was “almost the perfect place in the world” for the infrastructure required to power the AI revolution. But we also heard growing concern that Australia risks regulating, delaying and debating itself out of the opportunity. One phrase came up repeatedly throughout the trip: “Just make it happen.”
The clear expectation from global investors was not that governments eliminate every risk or guarantee every outcome. It was that countries move with urgency, provide clarity and create an environment where major projects can actually proceed.
Around the world, governments and businesses are moving fast to secure the investment, energy systems, data infrastructure and supply chains that will underpin the next generation of economic growth.
Huge amounts of global capital are on offer. Decisions are being made and projects are being approved. And the next six to 12 months are widely seen as critical.
We heard estimates of up to $US1 trillion in capital potentially being deployed globally over coming years into the infrastructure required to support AI. That means data centres, electricity generation, transmission, cooling systems, and advanced manufacturing.
This creates jobs, spurs our renewable investment and gives Australia a seat at the global table on the future direction of this new technology. Australia should be one of the leading destinations for that investment. But investment flows to where confidence exists. And increasingly, international investors are questioning whether Australia is still capable of saying “yes” to major projects quickly and consistently.
Again and again, concerns were raised about regulatory complexity, approvals delays and policy uncertainty. Whether it’s changing tax settings, debates around capital gains tax, or overlapping planning systems, these issues are not viewed in isolation internationally. Together, they fuel an existing narrative we’ve now heard in boardrooms from Tokyo to New York that Australia just makes it all too hard.
The federal budget’s proposed changes to capital gains tax make an already uncompetitive tax system less competitive when Australia needs to be fighting hardest for global capital.
While parliament is busy debating a new CGT regime, international investors are already drawing their own conclusions.
Investment that doesn’t come here is productivity growth we lose out on and living standards that don’t rise. Investors can manage commercial risk. What they struggle to manage is political and regulatory unpredictability.
One line from our recent meetings struck me more than any other. “The US says ‘yes’. Asia says ‘yes’. Europe says ‘no’. What will Australia say?” That question should focus minds here at home, because this debate isn’t ultimately about technology for technology’s sake. It’s about productivity, economic growth and living standards. Australia has experienced a prolonged productivity slowdown. Without stronger productivity growth, it makes sustainable real wage rises impossible. And the simple fact is that Australia must aggressively compete to secure the investment we need to drive productivity, so the next generation enjoys a higher standard of living than the last. AI presents a genuine opportunity to change that.
In the US there was awareness of the risks, including cyber security, workforce transitions and infrastructure. Yet the approach was pragmatic: seize the opportunity, manage the current risks, and adapt as challenges emerge. Australia needs more of that mindset. Even discussions around jobs and automation were far more measured than much of the public debate in Australia.
The overwhelming view was that AI would augment work, create new industries and drive demand for new skills.
None of this means abandoning sensible regulation. Australians rightly expect strong safeguards and robust institutions. But we should also recognise the global environment has changed. Capital today is more mobile than ever before. Investment decisions are increasingly competitive. Countries are actively competing to attract the industries that will define future prosperity. And after a week of conversations at the centre of global finance and policymaking, one thing became unmistakably clear.
Australia still has the opportunity to be a major winner in the AI era. But only if we are prepared to act like we want to win.